Introduction

Tanzania's banking sector has experienced rapid growth, fueled by digital innovations, regulatory reforms, and increasing financial inclusivity. As of 2024, the sector comprises 49 licensed banks, collectively managing TZS 43 trillion (USD 18 billion) in assets, accounting for 20% of the country’s GDP. The rise of mobile banking has played a crucial role in expanding financial services, with 55.8 million mobile money accounts, a 116.2% increase from 2019.

However, challenges persist, including high compliance costs, limited access in rural areas, and high lending rates averaging 16%, which restrict credit access for small businesses. Despite these hurdles, investment opportunities remain strong, particularly in digital banking, SME financing, and green financing, offering lucrative prospects for financial sector growth.

Digital Transformation and Financial Inclusion

The Tanzanian banking industry has undergone a major digital revolution, driven by mobile banking platforms such as M-Pesa, Tigo Pesa, and Airtel Money. Mobile transactions now exceed 310.9 million per month, with an annual transaction growth rate of 19%.

Financial inclusion has significantly improved, rising from 16% in 2009 to 70% in 2024. However, disparities exist:

• Urban Financial Access: 85%
• Rural Financial Access: 55%

By 2030, financial inclusion is expected to reach 90%, with mobile money accounts projected to hit 90 million.

Challenges in Tanzania’s Banking Sector

Despite growth, key barriers hinder full financial access, including:

1. High Compliance Costs: Compliance with AML (Anti-Money Laundering) and capital adequacy regulations has increased operational expenses by over 20% for banks.
2. Limited Rural Access: Only 55% of rural populations have financial access, compared to 85% in urban areas.
3. High Lending Rates: With an average interest rate of 16%, SMEs struggle to access affordable credit.
4. Limited SME Financing: Only 16% of SMEs have access to formal loans, despite constituting 90% of businesses in Tanzania.

Investment Opportunities in Tanzania’s Banking Sector

Tanzania’s banking industry presents various investment opportunities, particularly in:

1. Digital & Mobile Banking: The sector is projected to grow at 12% annually, with mobile money transactions exceeding 10 billion by 2030.
2. SME Financing: The unmet demand for SME loans is significant, with a projected 10% annual market growth.
3. Green Financing: Investments in eco-friendly projects in agriculture and energy are expected to rise by 15% annually.

Future Outlook: Tanzania’s Banking Sector by 2030

The financial landscape is expected to become more inclusive and competitive, driven by:

• Increase in Financial Access: Expected 90% nationwide, 70% in rural areas.
• Growth in Microfinance: Share of total banking assets rising from 20% to 30%.
• Expansion in Banking Players: The number of commercial banks is expected to grow from 49 to 60-65.

By 2030, Tanzania’s banking sector will be a leader in East Africa, benefiting from strong digital transformation, financial inclusivity, and regulatory advancements.

Conclusion

Tanzania's banking sector is on a transformative path, with mobile banking and fintech innovations driving financial inclusion. Despite challenges such as high compliance costs and lending rates, investment in digital banking, SME financing, and green financing will support future growth.

To maximize opportunities, regulatory improvements, infrastructure expansion, and digital literacy programs must be prioritized. If achieved, Tanzania will emerge as a regional banking powerhouse, setting a benchmark for financial inclusion across Africa.

Introduction

Tax reforms and policy planning play a critical role in shaping Tanzania’s economic landscape. In the 2023/2024 fiscal year, Tanzania recorded TZS 27.64 trillion in tax revenue, marking a 14.47% growth compared to the previous year. However, the tax revenue target of TZS 28.3 trillion was not fully met, signaling a need for enhanced efficiency and compliance strategies. Key contributing sectors included services (28.2%), trade (23.6%), and manufacturing (17.7%).

Despite this growth, businesses in Tanzania continue to face challenges such as high compliance costs, averaging 2% of annual revenues, which disproportionately impact SMEs and sustain a large informal economy (60% of employment). Addressing these barriers through policy reforms can lead to a more sustainable and inclusive economy.

Tax Revenue Growth and Sector Contributions

Tanzania’s tax revenue has been on an upward trajectory, driven by improvements in collection mechanisms.

Key Figures (2023/2024):

• Total Tax Revenue: TZS 27.64 trillion (+14.47% from 2022)
• Major Contributing Sectors:
  • Services (including tourism): TZS 7.8 trillion (28.2%)
  • Trade: TZS 6.54 trillion (23.6%)
  • Manufacturing: TZS 4.9 trillion (17.7%)
  • Agriculture: TZS 1.55 trillion (5.6%)

Challenges:

• Compliance Costs: Businesses spend 2% of annual revenue on tax compliance.
• Ease of Doing Business Score: Tanzania scored 59/100 in 2022, indicating moderate regulatory barriers.
• Corporate Tax Rate: At 30%, it is higher than Kenya’s (25%) and Uganda’s (30%), potentially deterring investment.

Investment Climate and Policy Impacts

Tanzania’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in 2024 stood at USD 1.5 billion, mainly concentrated in agriculture, mining, and energy. Projections indicate a 10% annual growth in FDI, contingent on regulatory improvements.

Key Policy Recommendations:

• Regulatory Simplification: Reduce bureaucratic hurdles for tax compliance.
• Tax Incentives for SMEs: Lower compliance costs and introduce tax breaks for small businesses.
• Enhancing Transparency: Improve predictability in tax regulations to attract investors.
• Integration of Informal Economy: Develop incentives to transition informal businesses into the formal sector.

Future Outlook and Conclusion

By 2030, Tanzania’s economy could see a significant boost with improved tax policies. Projections suggest:

• Tax revenue could reach TZS 40 trillion if compliance and collection efficiency improve.
• FDI inflows could grow to USD 2.8 billion, strengthening investment in key sectors.
• Financial Inclusion: Reducing compliance burdens and simplifying tax procedures will enhance economic participation.

Final Thoughts

While Tanzania has made remarkable strides in tax reforms, further enhancements in policy planning, compliance simplification, and investment-friendly tax structures will be essential to achieving long-term economic sustainability. Strengthening digital tax infrastructure, increasing taxpayer education, and promoting fair business policies can foster a more inclusive and prosperous economy.